Barclays Equity Research in the UK surprised the car industry by forecasting a sharp drop in car sales when rental vehicles become more popular. In the extreme, an autonomous taxi may replace 20 private cars as the number of people living in cities inexorably rises to 70%. Reasons for this global migration to cities include the search for jobs, the greying of the population limiting human mobility, young people regarding a car as an irritating interruption between Facebook and Twitter, not an aspiration and simply cities gobbling up the countryside. People are increasingly turning to commercial vehicles. For example, internet shopping means more delivery trucks and fewer cars. Taxis and buses replace cars. Porsche Design has pointed out that users will then have little interest in the powertrains and appearance of these vehicles as long as they are affordable to use and do the job efficiently. IDTechEx forecasts that, even excluding cars bought for commercial use, the industrial and commercial electric vehicle market will be 65% of the hybrid and pure electric vehicle business in 2027 when full hybrid and pure electric cars are only 21%. See the new IDTechEx report, "Industrial and Commercial Electric Vehicles 2017-2027" which reveals the huge opportunities emerging.
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